Did you catch the AUD/USD price action reversal trade I shared this week?
On Wednesdays analysis I spotted two possible reversal trades, one on AUD/USD, and the other on USD/CAD. The USD/CAD trade was forming on a questionable resistance area, so I skipped it…
… Instead, I focused on the AUD/USD trade, and it worked out very well. And this time, I did something I haven’t done in a long time.
Did you take this trade?
I know a lot of people following my analysis entered one or both of these trades. If you entered it, I would love to hear how you managed the trade. Even if you managed it badly and closed out early!
Also, if you have any questions, feel free to ask below. I try to answer every question.
odaro
hi nick
I took the AUDUSD trade and I actually bagged just over 100pips. It was a real good one. Thanks 4 d analysis
sabin
Hey Nick congrats on the winning trade.
My question is why didn’t you take half the profit at that concerning are and move your stop loss to 0 like you usually do?
Harun
Mate bloody love your videos I got 2 Questions for you
1) will you continue making these daily analysis? I love them.
2) I use the same strategy as you trading price action reversals but I do it on the 1HR & 4HR charts. I also use the RSI as a filter in my trades for over bought / sold. What’s your opinion on this ?it’s been going great so far
Piero
Hey Nick!
Yes, same here! I aborted the trade ’cause I moved SL to breakeven! It’s hard to handle trades like that, I should learn more about! Maybe it’s a lack of experience!
Thanks Nick, you made me confident about my trading skills and expectations!
Nick
The way I do my targets has changed. While some trades I might take half the profit at predefined area, this trade had a maximum potential of 1:2. Taking profit before 1:2 would drive my risk to reward ratio down to just over 1, and well below 2. I want to keep my ratio above 3 this year, 2 is already low, I did not want it lower.
Each trade is unique and must be traded differently. If my trade assessment shows me that the maximum target is 1:2, then I set my full target at 1:2.
Nick
Glad it worked out well for you!
Nick
1) Yes, definitely.
2) I do not use the RSI, I never felt much of a need to use indicators. However, if it works for you, keep doing it!
Nick
That’s unfortunate, you still made some profit though, right?
Copying and pasting from my other response to a similar question….
The way I do my targets has changed. While some trades I might take half the profit at predefined area, this trade had a maximum potential of 1:2. Taking profit before 1:2 would drive my risk to reward ratio down to just over 1, and well below 2. I want to keep my ratio above 3 this year, 2 is already low, I did not want it lower.
Each trade is unique and must be traded differently. If my trade assessment shows me that the maximum target is 1:2, then I set my full target at 1:2.
Roger
Yes, I took it. I had a 40 pip SL and an 80 pip TP. Hit it nicely. That you for the heads up.
Piero
No Nick, no profits! because I was sleeping while price reached 1 : 1 RR target and I only had an automatic “move to breakeven” option in my trading platform (cTrader with FxPro) so when price retraced to support it automatically stopped me out at breakeven (no gains – no losses). Anyway, I learned a lot riding this position… mostly thank to you!
Please don’t stop making these daily videos, they’re full of resources. If I’ll make it, I promise I’ll offer you a dinner in Scotland! :-P
Roger
Forgot to mention that when I first looked after watching your video, price was already too high for decent R/R, so I did a buy limit order in case it came back down some, which it did, and took me in at a favorable price.
Charles Lea
Hi Nick, thanks for the informative video on this trade. I did actually try this trade on a demo account – I am a newcomer to Forex trading.
What has happened since taking this trade – I placed the order pretty much after recieving your recommendation and have been watching it, I still have the order running now, I have altered my stop loss position but have let the take profit position run at a previous high at the level it was around 3rd December (just thought I would see how high it could go) Which ever way you look at it I now have a profit which I am happy with. I am using cTrader as my platform and must admit I am finding it a great piece of software, all I need to do now is find a decent broker who uses this as their platform – will have to look into how to set a trailing stop loss on it. Once again thanks for the informative video – will keep you updated.
Muhammad
Thanks alot for the video.
Richard
Hey Nick!
It was a really nice trade, i was looking the entry on a 6hr chart, nice indecision candle on an area of support , nice preceding trend, my R:R was 1:2 (which is my minimum R:R for a trade) at some points during the trade i was worried , but i sticked to my plan and everything worked just fine.
Your strategy its awesome nick, i’ve learned a lot here on forex4noobs. Keep doing this videos, a lot of people learning here!
Thanks!
chris g
Fear closed out my USD/CAD (200+pip gain), should have watched AUD closer . Lesson learned.
Thanks for keeping us updated.
Chuks
Great video. Incidentally I did both trades although I haven’t been following your analyses and surely didn’t see the last output. I trade longer term and so, I intend to hold both trades for much longer.
I won’t say you missed on USDCAD but it was and still is, A MASSIVE SHORT! I have followed it for long so it was quite easier to spot on the bigger charts and join the reversal at 1.4624. It has yielded close to 500 pips already and hopefully, I can get much more from it in the days ahead. It looks like January might end with a massive Gravestone Doji or similar signals and that should produce more shorting chances…
I will know which management options to use for this trade going forward.
All in all,
Your videos are great, doggone it!!
Charles Lea
Just an update on this order, as I said above I had moved my stop loss up for profit and allowed the order to run, well have just looked now (18:51 GMT) and the order has been closed out at the modified stop loss. Overall a profit of 123 pips since opening the trade. Pretty good I think, was thinking about putting in a short order but the weekend is rolling on strong so Forex will be taking a break – I will do the same. Have a good one people.
James
Great vid as usual Nick. I’ve never been able to get a 3:1 with this strategy. Is this because I set my s/r on the 8 hour ?
Cheers
J
Daniel Moreno
Hi Nick,
I took the audusd trade and earned some pips : D thanks!
My entry was 0.6856 and exit at 0.6931, I think i closed too early.( I considered just to the end of the previous high candle body)
WillWinner24
Hey Nick was that a double bottom on the support line when the trade you took was forming
Bill Miller
Nick,
Thanks for another outstanding video! My question is about one of the tools you used. Is the tool that shows entry, SL and TP prices and R/R available as a free downnload? It saves time in placing orders, and I’d like to use it on MT4 if possible.
Thanks! Bill
Nick
No, I am using tradingview as my charting provider, it is completely unrelated to Metatrader. MT4 is ten year old technology, it is completely outdated, and outclassed by modern technology. Even though MT4 is updated regularly, its core is still 10 years old. And, in the world of software development, 10 years old is very old.
I use tradingview because it utilizes modern technology. This allows me to use tools that are far beyond the capabilities of MT4, and even of MT5. Also, tradingview is browser based so I can access my charts from anywhere with my smartphone.
Sorry to turn this into a rant… but it becomes tiring to see how many millions of traders are still using crappy MT4, when there is a world of better platforms out there.
Nick
I do not pay attention to those types of patterns, so I am unsure. I do not think it was though.
Nick
Fair enough, it might have been a little early as your risk would have probably been too high.
Nick
Possibly, I do not often go for 3:1, it is a new goal I set this year.
Nick
Hey Charles, even though you did not take it, what was the short based on? I do not see shorting as a safe option, the 0.6970 support area is much too close.
Nick
With this specific strategy, I have rules that define whether or not I should enter a specific trade setup. When I look at a setup, I go through a checklist and give the setup a score. If the score is below a certain number, I do not take the trade. The USD/CAD trade was below that number as the resistance area was untested. So, for this specific strategy, I skipped the trade.
I explained in my analysis that USD/CAD was reversing, as I had a strong feeling it would. However, the set up did not pass the scrutiny of my trading plan, so it was avoided. While some can say I missed a good trade, I see it differently. I stuck to my trading plan and did not get tempted to break my rules by a nice looking trade. In the long run, this attitude will save me from massive losses, and from making huge mistakes.
Also, I have strict money management rules. The AUD/USD trade used up my maximum risk, as an example, lets say that is 1% of my account. If I wanted to trade AUD/USD and USD/CAD I would need to risk 0.5% on each trade, as opposed to 1% on a single trade. This means that my results would have been roughly the same, had I taken both trades.
Nick
Do you have a trading plan?
Nick
Thanks! And I am glad you stuck to your plan. Most people do not do that, and then they are surprised when they fail.
Edward Teresinski
Hello
Cheers friend your analysis from higher time frames
Give us the edge in trading getting better entries.
Keep up the good work.
Edward Teresinski :)
KHOSI
hey Nick
Thank you for the video, am trying to follow but at this point somethings are greek to me, but I think am starting to get the support and resistance
Saud
Thank you,Nick for this explanation,it gives us new techniques for how to carry out a trad.
Why don’t you use fibonacchi retracements to know the wave will stop at a support or not.
I use it with candles,and the PA,they give a very good idea about the uptrend if it will continues or not.
Thanks for the answer
Bill
Thanks for the “rant!” I’ll look into tradingview. I have no excuses for not doing so earlier. — just stayed with what I was comfortable with … and needed this little push.
erez
first of all sorry for my bad english, and many thanks for your videos.
I found out that using your method of drawing s/r areas ,provides a lot more opportunities if you choose doing it either on the 8h or the 12h time frame.
on that specific case I choose the 12h . I switched to the other T.F , ( not lower than the 4h ), but couldn’t find any signal .
The next day I got the signal on the 4h . It was a big indecision candle (almost a doji ) sitting right on
the support area
Usually i wait for a confirmation candle. On that case when I looked at whole picture I realized that the signal candle is after a break of the main trend and the retrace following the break stopped exactly
on the 61.8 FIB . so i went long with a 1 :3 ratio.
Thanks.
waterdrinken
Hi nick
I know this question is not related to this video but
what kind of tool do you use to draw those arrows and yellow things ?
And when do you know if a pair is not good to trade for period of time ?
Thx for the video update well done .
Kieran
Great video. Can I ask what drawing tool you are using when you are explaining things?
lempocam
Hi Nick – Thanks for the wonderful information you are providing to traders. I have demo traded for a year and currently live trading now for close to a year. I started small ($500) and I mostly enter into a few trades pretty much every week. I’m doing well as I am unable to grow my account. In fact most times I’m always close to where I started. I live in the US and felt more comfortable on initiation to go with a US broker so I went with MB trading using the ctrader platform which works perfect for me. Recently MB trading entered into a merger with another broker and my account was transferred to this broker. From the limited platform option I am using MT4 which I’m not happy with particularly because of the limited available time frame. I took your advice (thank you) and I’m doing charting on a ctrader platform. My question is; Is it advisable enter a trade on my broker platform by choosing my entry point, stop loss and take profit point from my charting platform (ex 6H, 8H, 12H time frame) and transposing these values to my broker platform?
Thanks for your advice.
lempocam
Sorry. I meant to say I’m not doing well.
Nick
Hey, yes, I do that all the time. I use TradingView to chart with and MT5 to trade with. Sorry to hear you are not doing well. What is your win to loss ratio on trades?
Nick
It is part of the recording software I used called Camtasia, it only draws while recording, and the drawings are deleted when the recording is stopped.
Nick
It is part of the recording software I used called Camtasia, it only draws while recording, and the drawings are deleted when the recording is stopped.
There are many factors involved in deciding whether to take a trade or now. Honestly, I cannot summarize them all into a comment.
lempocam
It’s approximately 1 : 1.5, sometimes a little better. I also realized that having a small account put you in a sticky position with respect to growing your account, money management and staying within an established percent risk limit.
Nick
If you are losing 60% of trade, that is fine, there is nothing wrong with losing in Forex. What you need to do is adjust your targets and stops.
If your risk ratio is 2 or above, you will be profitable while losing 60% of trades. Lets say your wins are always £20 and your losses are always £10. That would mean your risk ratio is 2. Four winning trades would earn you £80, while six losing trades will cost you -£60. You would still be £20 in profit while losing 60% of all your trades.
There is literally nothing wrong with losing in Forex!
I know a trader who has been trading for six years, and has been profitable for the last four years. Yet, this guy only wins 30% of his trades, which means his strategy is not great, and his analysis skills suck…
… Even though he is wrong 70% of the time, he still makes a living from primarily from trading Forex!
How?
He has an average risk ratio of 3.7, and that was just last year, the year before it was 4.2. So, lets say he is earning £370 per win and £100 per loss.
£370 x 3 = £1110
£100 x 7 = £700
£1110 – £700 = £410
Every ten trades he takes he is up £410, and he loses 70% of trades!
You should not be breaking even with 60% loses, you should be profitable. I think your problem lays with money management, and specifically risk to reward.
Nick
Thanks for watching man!
Nick
Nice work, I am glad it worked out for you. I am not a big fan of Fib levels. However, it is awesome that you can make them work with price action!
Nick
I never felt I needed them. I tried them a few times and they did not prove to be a benefit. In fact, for me they hindered my trading. Many times took me out of a trade much earlier than I would have got out myself.
This is not to say Fib levels are useless. You should make use of whatever works for you!
Nick
There is a lot of information on support and resistance on forex4noobs. Here are some links that may help
https://bullrushacademy.com/forex-trading-strategy/
https://bullrushacademy.com/forex-blog/forex-webinar-recordings/
Nick
Thanks for watching and I am glad it is helping you out!
Nick
Fair enough, TradingView is paid, there are some free options like ChartIQ. ChartIQ was free last time I looked but might have changed. There is also a great trading platform called cTrader which is much more modern than MT4. It can be used as a chart platform only if you open a live account with certain brokers and do not fund the live account….
… Although they will probably catch on eventually and shut the account!
lempocam
You might be right. I myself suspected my money management skills might be lacking. From my observations however, I also believe a bigger account would result in better growth. The thing is, I’m hoping to be having a better win rate prior to me making that inevitable plunge. Anyway thanks a million for your advice, I totally appreciate it.
Charles Lea
Hi Nick, it was just a hunch thats all – looking at it now I maybe could have got a few pips but nothing to write home about. Still learning about this forex thing, but thanks to your training I will get there eventually. Have only been working at it for a few weeks now but it is proving interesting.
waterdrinken
Thx so much for your reply I am really thankful that you are learning people your strategy and uploading videos to your YouTube channel to get a better understanding of how you trade. When I can make consistent money I will give you a Rolex my man, I am right now in highschool and I just really want to trade but highschool takes all the time away and I really want to dropout and start trading full time but the thing is that at my age I can’t get a credit card or PayPal so now I am just in school to get 18 and then dropout but serious man your strategy is amazing keep up the great work and I will vist you one time and then we can chill with our rolies.
Mick
Hey Nick,
Thanks for another great video. Refreshing to see a real trader talk about how they approach a trade. And also that greed still gets a look-in for you too!
In was going to ask about taking part position & moving SL to breakeven. Then I read sabin’s question below & your answer.
While keeping the full lot size on until SL or TP will help your R:R ratio it may be detrimental to your Win/Loss ratio. What do you think?
Cheers,
Mick
Nick
Hi Mick,
It will definitely impact my win loss ratio. However, that doesn’t really matter.
In my latest post I explain this concept.
https://bullrushacademy.com/forex-blog/trading-videos/live-price-action-trade-video-95-pips-gbpjpy-8hr/
The explanation is below the video.
Peter Sharma
Great trade Nick. Nice example of trading psychology that we all need to succeed. If the entry is right and the stop loss is correctly placed rest is the psychology. You have shown a perfect example of trading successfully.
In last two years time I couldn’t figure this out. Neither I met someone who could teach me with confidence and make profit consistently. Great video….Can’t wait to join your Advanced course.
Regards,