The #1 Profit Killer In Your Trading – And How You Can Change it Today

How happy would you be if you could reduce bad trades, spend less time trading and make more profit?

You would love it!

But what stops you from trading less and winning more is something that most traders do wrong.

I call it the “baby time frame syndrome”

Forex Profitability Chart

Below is the chart if you want to take a closer look. This chart shows the average profitability by time frame based on data from over 360 surveys.
forex profitability chart

What Do You Do Next?

So you know what the ‘baby time frame syndrome’ is and how it can negatively impact your trading. Now it is time to cure yourself of the syndrome by following the simple three step plan below:

Step 1: Get a Trading Strategy

Find a good large time frame trading strategy. I recommend my dead simple and highly profitable free Forex Price Action strategy.

Step 2: Fix Your Trading Plan

Put together a new trading and money management plan. Again I got you covered here with the free forex video course.

Step 3: Make Some Pips!

Start trading larger time frames and watch your trading results improve.

Let me know what you think about this post by leaving a comment below.


77 comments

Boy Is that ever True   I lost all the time till I went to Higher Time frame.
   My last two years tradeing have been profitable  I tarade off suport and resistance and Trends lines exclusively .  Forex for Noobs is directed at novice traders but the advise is from a pro So don’t underestimate the info yo get here.      I now call 1 hour charts short term Charts and never even look at  anything lower .  Its just noise 1 hour and below.
                         

I agree. By the way, forex4noobs is not just for novice traders. I know the name suggests that but this site is directed at traders of all levels.

Tradable noise. ;-)

Not for the majority of people. The other thing is that most of us do not like being tied to our computers for every session.

Trading a long term method from a phone or a tablet is ok because precision is not needed. However, trading a short term method requires precision so an unreliable 3g connection and a small screen for charting makes precision impossible.

good point from Nick, but like everything in life, it is not absolute. I have been more profitable since Ibegan to trade higher time frame, however I do consult lower time frames to see if a support or resistance  on higher time frame will hold or not and it does help

Sure Chris. The survey was very thorough and quite a few people said that they used smaller time frames for analysis.

Hi Nick,

Good article. Personally, I believe that higher and lower time frames work equally well.
Since your write up is biased towards longer term time frames I’ll play devils advocate if I may…

Firstly, lower time frames offer more trade opportunities, and with careful trade management, larger profits not less as you suggest. For anyone who has read Van Tharp’s book, the concept of expectunity is paramount when trading. Expectunity is basically opportunity (# trade opportunities) multiplied by the expectancy (whether you win or lose over a reasonable sample of trades) of your method.
Two methods, one on the 4 hour chart and the other on the 5 min chart, may have the same expectancy, say 1.5R (win 1.5 times as much as you lose). However, the 5min method is likely to have a much higher opportunity/# of trade signals, and therefore far more profitable than the 4 hour method.

There are many misconceptions between the various methods for different time frames. One such misconception is that a trade can be trailed on higher time frames (to maximise profit) and not on a shorter time frame. This is simply not true as both qualify for such trade management if the trader so desires.

I am not saying that shorter time frames are for everyone, and maybe not so well suited to noobs, but in the quest for trading success screen time is unavoidable. Short time frames maximise relative screen time simply because more candles (or other forms of price) are formed in a given time period i.e. there are 12 5min candles formed for every 1 hour candle.

Lastly, I know of no other way where a trader can make a set $ amount each trading session. With longer time frames, the trader must wait for the market to yield a reasonable move which may be days apart. Trading on, say a 5min time frame, almost always yields a 10 pip move which allows the trader to consistently grow their account utilising the magic of compounding. Of course compounding is available to the longer time frame traders too but compounding every day v’s compounding every week will obviously grow the account at a far greater rate.

Just my two penneth…

Kev

Womblers your argument falls down at a very significant hurdle. While some new traders can handle the stress associated with smaller time frames most cannot.

Statistically I think that smaller time frames produce an equal amount of profit. Let’s say you could turn a traders brain into a piece of software and remove all emotions. You then task the emotionless brain software with trading a 5 min and a 4 hr chart. I think by the end of the year the results in pips would be similar.

The problem is that people cannot remove their emotions from trading. I have been trading for almost a decade and I still cannot detach myself emotionally from a trade. I have gotten much better at controlling my emotions but I cannot shut them off.

The survey I gave was highly detailed and it did ask about stress levels. Traders who trade smaller time frames profitably rated their stress levels higher than those who trade large time frames profitably. Even among experienced profitable traders there seems to be more stress associated with smaller time frames.

The problem with smaller time frames is that they put more stress on inexperienced traders. Stress leads to mistakes which in turn leads to a loss of self confidence. More screen time may lead to more expired but it also leads to more stress. And this is where your argument falls down. You know of no other way a trader can make a set amount of money each session? Damn, you are one up on me then. I know of no way a trader can make a set amount of money in each trading session. If I did I would have bought an island by now….

Hi Nick,

My comments were not directed at new traders per se (I think I made this clear with the comment ‘I am not saying that shorter time frames are for everyone, and maybe not so well suited to noobs’).

For me, there are aspects of trading which are mechanical and others where discretion/emotions are involved so I don’t suggest that ’emotions’ can truly be removed or indeed you would ever want to. That would be a travesty as this is where part of the trader’s edge lies. It is certainly where mine is.

I am sure that your survey is correct in that many respondents would rate lower time frames as more stressful. All I can say is for me it is actually the opposite. Trading for a maximum of 1 hour each day and often securing my trading target within a much shorter time is pretty stress free. Everyone is different of course but this is my experience. Everyone has to find their niche. For some it is higher time frames, for others shorter timeframes and for a select few, a mixture.

I agree with you that less experienced traders should maybe start with higher time frames where they can build a solid trading method and the necessary confidence to keep executing it flawlessly (or as close to that as possible)

As for screen time and experience, I believe a trader requires a minimum amount for success (different for each trader). You can go for the slow bleed on longer time frames of a faster one on shorter time frames. Each trader will differ how they respond. For some, that minimum level of experience may be gained in a vastly shorter period of time trading smaller time frames but the attrition rate may be higher.

As for making a set $ amount each session…all I can say is that it is possible and there are a number of traders doing just this. I must admit though, the ones I am aware of all trade shorter time frames.
As for buying an island, I believe most are just content with making a very good living.

My post was not intended to be inflammatory more just to provide a balanced view and some support for the under represented art of shorter time frame trading.

Kev
ALikeReply

Hey Kev,

I noticed your comment was not directed at new traders. However, my post was directed at new traders. I never said that experienced traders need to stop trading smaller time frames. I said if a new trader finds that he/she is consistently losing on smaller time frames the stats show they should trade larger time frames.

Stress is obviously subjective but I am sure many find lower time frames less stressful. We are all different there cannot be a one size fits all trading strategy. I think the majority of people find large time frames less stressful because you only need to check your charts once of twice a day. Then when you see a trade you can take it and go about your day without needing to check in for several hours. These days 90% of my trades are taken from my Galaxy Tab while I am off rock climbing or doing something else.

Honestly Kev I do not believe that anyone can make money every day. There has to be some losing days. You cannot tell me that you know people that trade with 100% accuracy or that they never have a losing day…..Longer time frames do not need to be a slow bleed. I do analysis every day and that counts as screen time. I predict where price is going to go every day and that keeps my price action analysis well tuned.I did not consider your comment inflammatory.

I thought this was a discussion not an arument.

Nick

Hi Nick,

All good points and I do agree re new traders at least starting out on longer time frames.

Shorter time frame trading certainly requires focus but ironically can use the same method as used by traders on a higher time frame. For example, I personally use a price ation based method using key support and resistance levels (based on multiple time frames)

The only real difference is the frequency of trading. Whereas a longer term trader may take 5 trades a weak a short term trader may take 50. Incidentally, this addresses the issue of the possibility of making money each day. No trading method, at least that I have come across, has a 100% win rate. For example, if a method has an 80% win rate (I use this purely to make the maths easier as many successful methods yield a lower win rate) a longer term trader trading 5 times a week can expect to lose at least 1 day a week i.e. you would expect to have a losing day as a longer term trader. A short term trader trading 50 times a week (taking 10 trades a day) can expect to win 8 and lose 2 trades a day, implementing correct money management, can lead to most days being winners. I am not saying that you will never experience a losing day but with diligence they can become an exception. The key here is trading frequency or better described as increasing your trade sample size to allow your edge to play out on a daily basis rather than, say, over a week or month.

I often read your analysis Nick and I know that you are committed to the success of traders. I have gleaned much useful information from some excellent traders over the years I have been a member here at Forex 4 Noobs.

Good to know we are all friends in a common endeavour! ;-)

Kev

I should also add that trading a long term method from a phone or a tablet is ok because precision is not needed. However, trading a short term method requires precision so an unreliable 3g connection and a small screen for charting makes precision impossible.

I can take trades from anywhere in the world. I took a trade at a coffee shop a few weeks back. Recently I took a trade while I was climbing a mountain (not as exciting as it sounds) here in Scotland. Just this week I took a trade while sitting out in the sun enjoying a BBQ.

Many of us do not want to be tied to a computer each day. I think this is part of what makes longer term trading less stressful.

Agreed and good post. I was a total wreck when I started trading. I found it difficult to trade anything longer than h1. I was burning myself out trading m5 – m30, opening up trades and closing them quickly, staying up late at night to catch London open (3am here in Miami, FL), and blew through multiple paper accounts because of poor risk management. Best thing I ever did was switch to H4, D1, and W1 and develop the patience needed to catch big moves. Sometimes I’ll even trade H1 if there is a setup that goes with the longer TF trend.

I finally convinced myself that I would never be able to trade at 3am and that there was no money to be made on a lower time frame because of the pip amount between one S/R level to the other. It also helped that I would be able to live my life stress free and do what I wanted if I just traded on a longer TF.

Thanks for the post A. I think one of the best things about trading larger time frames is that they are relatively stress free. I was similar to you when I started except I trade tick charts and 1m charts for a while!

Thanks Nick this is a great post. I agree completely!

Thanks for the comment Tom.

very well put nick , everyone should be preaching longer time frames 

It is sad but most people don’t but then again most Forex bloggers are not real traders! Thanks for your comment mate.

Great article, Nick. I totally agree with you. There is no momentum or authority in the lower time frames, so it doesn’t make sense to “believe” what they are telling you. Thanks for putting some real data behind this! Great Job

Thanks Nathan. That is a good way of putting it, there is no authority in lower time frames.

Couldn’t agree with Nick more here.

Since I implemented a trading plan using his template and trading 4hour charts and above. My live account with GFT has grown 25% in the first 2 weeks this month.

Good work Brandon that is an impressive increase. You should probably slow down thought 25% is unsustainable over the long term.

Great advice for all of us newbies

Thanks for commenting, glad you enjoyed the post.

Thanks for the survey Nick. I have been trying to trade shorter term for a while and was recently (3 months) introduced to a simple daily method using moving averages. It takes 10 minutes a day, if any time at all and so far is working beautifully. The drawdowns are a bit scary though. I am persisting with the short term trading as a way to enter long term trades. I think, if you are successful short term trader taking 10 pips or so per trade, you are in a golden position to use this skill to enter long term trades with a BE SL. How powerful is that! Don’t waste it on 10-30 pips when you have a no risk ability to get 300 pips.

If it works stick with it. Nobody should let statistics disrupt them if they are already making profit. Some of the people surveyed were making profit on smaller time frames.

Good thinking Russ. I trialled this for some time but found that almost all my +10 pip trades turned around and stopped me out. I do trail however when there is a whiff of momentum in the air. Trading a higher position size for what many think is a small number of pips can be highly lucrative. It is a different mentality though.

A short while ago you posted a video on trading the 8-hr chart, and that made a huge difference for me- a perfect balance point between the 4-hr (too short for a working man to follow) and the daily (too long).  Now I’m using the 8-hr as my primary TF bracketed by the 4-hr and daily.  I still needed to control the urge to check smaller and smaller time frames out of fear that I’m going to get “blindsided” by a large move against me before the candle close on the longer TF chart.  You simply must develop the discipline to wait for the candles to close- the whole idea is to not have to keep checking your charts.  It was VERY humbling to realize what this was telling me about how susceptible I still was to fear and greed.  Longer time frames- and taking a blood oath to not even look at anything below four hours- has really helped to begin curing that.  Now I’m almost back to my starting balance- yeah!

Perfect, I love 8hr trading too. Good to hear your building up your account akjohn. I am glad what you are learning in the advanced course is helping!

8h and daily, combined with several 4-5 pairs give good enough opportunities. enuff to cover whilst still doing other jobs.

Thanks!! I am for higher TF trading.  I am on 4Hrly and Daily.  But why is the senior in Forex4noobs trading on 1min and 5min!?

A side note: Nike, can you please speaks up when yo do the recording!! Seriously!!

A senior? I am not aware of forex4noobs having any seniors besides me and maybe Fetor. Who are you talking about exactly?

Yes, its Fetor and some other in green, in the chat room.  Most of the time they are reading chart on a lower time frame.

As far as I know Fetor trades larger time frames. The other green guys are not seniors. They just help to moderate the chat room. I do not support their trading method, I just provide a space for people to chat.

Ok. Thanks!! :)

I tend to rely on 4H…

I trade 4h, 8h and Daily.

I generally believe this to be true but its taking a while to kick the short time frame habit which is odd because I hate being stuck to the computer all day. The problem I have with the higher time frame logic is this, aren’t all smaller time frames just a fractal of the larger time frames? In other words what you can do on large time frames can be done on the smaller time frames. There will be more losses on the smaller time frames but the greater frequency of trades means the expectancy (overall average profit) will often work out the same.

The problem with more losses is however, the impact on the traders confidence and of course the more trades the greater likelihood of mistakes being made further eroding your odds. But on the plus side, it means you get more market hours to gain market experience. The only way to speed up the experience process on larger time frames is to use a simulator, but then you are not trading real money. Pro’s and cons.

You hit the nail on the head. I believe that if traded without emotion smaller time frames will generate the same amount of profit as larger time frames. There will be more winning trades and more losing trades on smaller time frames but I believe the average profit would be the same or similar.

The problem seems to be the impact losing trades has on a traders psychology. Also, the stress of taking ten trades a day would likely cause mistakes.
While the survey was very detailed it was not detailed enough to prove this. However, I do believe that you are right.

also less trades, less pippage on higher TF doesn’t mean less profit. more pairs doesnt mean more profit. this is because we can change the leverage factor and lot size. even 50 pip profit on a higher tf, can be as much as 200 pip on a lower tf, provided it has a higher lot size

 Also, I hear often it is best to trade multiple time frames, therefore gaining the bigger picture but acting upon it on a smaller time frame thus getting into the market earlier than if trading on the bigger time frame. There are many multiple time frame methods on the web that use SR strategies. It would make sense to me to plot levels on H4 for example and then drop to the smaller time frame (eg hourly) to wait for reactions to that levels looking at the price action for example. Is this something you have looked at Nick and if so, what were your findings? Thanks.

From the data I collected multiple time frame trading seemed to be profitable. However, there weren’t enough multi time frame traders in the sample to come to a proepr conclusion on this matter.

Hi Peter,

I am doing multiple TF trading. It works great!! Both on profit and on losses, as it is multiple TF, the lost is cut earlier.

Cheers!!

You are so correct but, small time frames pull you like a magnet so I must get rid of the magnet.I get smashed by small T/frames daily.

 True, it does suck you in and its becomes very easy to deviate from your plan when you are sitting there waiting for things to happen. That’s why it is very important to stick to your general trading plan and make a daily plan specific for that day/currency pair, on a daily basis.

That sucks. Hope you can break the habit. Have you got a trading plan based on longer time frame charts? If you don’t then write one up, it will help.

It does suck me in initially. :p
Stick to a plan, keep an eyes on Higher TF and you will be alright. 

Very sound advice Nick. It should be taken on board by everyone

Thanks Dave.

As ever you give very sound advice Nick. I trade almost exclusively in the daily charts and use the 8h and 4h charts for confirming the status of the relevant candles.

I occasionally trade in 8h and very occasionally in the 4h – but only when they are giving me the clearest picture.

With sound risk management and forward planning of a trade, trading on the daily chart is virtually stress-free. There are many more pips to be had – it does take nerves sometimes not to close a trade too soon, but such nerves are trained by experience. This is why keeping a trading journal is important – it makes sense of a trader’s experience AND it helps her/him towards more efficient trading – which includes moveing up the trading tile frames.

“…nerves are trained by experience”. Spot on!

Thanks Julie. Glad to see you are doing well with your trading. 

This will come as no surprise but the data collected showed that traders with a journal performed better than traders without.

I like that quote “nerves are trained by experience” I think I might steal it from you for my next post if that is ok.

8H? That is a strange chart. What broker are you using MT4 has no 8H charts.

Yap!! :)

Hi Tom – sorry to have taken so long to reply to your question re: 8hour chart.  I’ve been in Paris for a week visiting my daughter and eating far too much !

I trade on OANDA. I started on OANDA before I joined Nick and the gang here and I decided to stick with them. They offer the 8h chart – so I use it.

Nick – steal the quote ? – it’s yours. You have more contact with many more traders than I do and if those words are of any use – use them !

hi nick,i am interested on your strategy and plan to join your advanced courses. But can you tell me what specific skills can i learn from your course? could you please email me about that?

thanks a lot.

I will email you today but I had to remove your email form this comment. Sticking emails on web pages is a sure way to get an inbox full of spam.

For the time frame, I used 1H chart as there are bigger stop loss on larger time. That’s why i used to 1H chart instead of daily or 4 hours. 

The survey was placed on four sites including forex4noobs. The survey was randomly shown to 5% of site visitors. I did not personally select any of the 4,000 people that were shown the survey. From the 4,000 shown, 10% completed the survey and I only used completed surveys.

Stating that you do not want to spend the time is a poor excuse. You do not know enough about the data collected to write a dissertation. You do not know enough about the data to draw any conclusions.

However, feel free to attempt a dissertation. I will happily address each issue you put forward.

Time is precious but seeing how you’ve reacted to my post I’ll provide you statements & premises. Email me the statistical data collected, the other website names used to gather the data & the actual survey & I’ll create my response.

On a side note: Providing credentials on your findings isn’t “boring” ; it’s gives your work credibility.

I wont be emailing you the data. You said that you would write a dissertation breaking down each flaw in my post. You never stipulated that you needed access to the data I have collected.

I collected the data under a very strict privacy policy. Technically I am not allowed to hand the raw data over to you. I am allowed to hand over the processed data but I do not see why I should.

On a side note: Posts need to flow quickly as most people the days have busy lives and don’t want to spend ten minutes on unnecessary information. This post would not have received fifty comments and hundreds of views if I spent half the video talking about margin of error, confidence levels and normal distribution.

You’ve essentially done this:
1. Posted a video with a conclusion
2. A viewer has questioned your conclusion & it’s validity
3. You asked for proof that the conclusion of your video is incorrect
4. I’ve asked for the data leading to your conclusion so I can examine it & provide my proof and/or be proven wrong
5. You’ve refused and/or “don’t see why” you should provide it to me

In addition, while I said I can provide a dissertation on the flaws of your findings; I did not state wether I would need additional information or not. In which case I have now disclosed to you that I do need it (additional data) in order to do so.

In conclusion, you’ve refused to provide the required info. in order for me to either dis-prove or prove your findings. 

Impartial observer chiming in here.

Nick is right. You did not question his finding so much as rudely assert that they are wrong.

Art, you sound like a spin doctor. Find your spine and admit you made a mistake. Perhaps if you played nice people would be happier to help you.

Why would anyone give u the data when u already made ur mind up about them bein wrong?

Quote—————-
Your population mean is negatively skewed
———————-

Quote—————-
I can write a whole dissertation breaking down each flaw in this post
———————-

Why are u even respondin to this dude Nick? He has already decided your wrong he is a waste of time.

i hear what you are saying Nick and can see the benefit for the newbie to trade higher TF. however i am not sure you can discount smaller tfs provided the person trading them is equally as structured in their trading process. i feel people can get too hung up on TF’s and that we must remember price is the same price for the same pair regardless of timeframe. it is still the same price. you your self drop down to lower timeframes to manage trades. i feel that where higher TF’s come into being is most definitley for analysis. their is no point trying to analyse a 15min chart and expect to get 60 points from 1 trade lasting  over an hour based on what you see there. however you can analyse a 15m charty and get 10-15 pips in 15-30 mins.but that chart would not give you the overall bias and bigger picture like a 4 hour. so maybe higher TF’s is less streesful but please remember price is the same on any TF. this is merely meant as my response to the article on not any attack on anything. we are each responsible for our own trades. i think you do a great job here Nick and i have picked up some points along the way over my last 5 years education.. i am a retail trader and trade full time trading 15 min charts so i think i am able to comment. and for anybody wondering, no i am not retired but 40yo living the dream. and it took me 5 years to get here so as Nick says, dont skip the hard work and be prepared to put the time in.

Anyibet, there were definitely some people surveyed who were making profit on small time frames. I understand your point and it does have some validity. A larger percentage of the people who were trading small time frames were trading without a proper plan in place. To me this suggests that many people trading small time frames are gamblers rather than investors….. hence the results shown in the post above.

At the end of the day. The results seem to show that larger time frames are easier to trade. I believe that if somebody is already making profit on smaller time frames they should ignore this post. This post is directed to people in the Forex community who are consistently failing on lower time frames. While time frames are not the only factor they are big factor so they cannot be ignored.

I am going to do another post today or tomorrow and reveal a lot of other data.

 Nick, were the people who we trading small time frames successfully usually experienced traders? If they were can i know how many years on average they have been trading?

smaller timeframes pros and cons – i.e. just trading them on their own is unlikely to yield good results.

CONS-

they are choppy and whipsaw you out of the market .you can get a long signal and then a short signal and unclear which to take. and trading it alone without looking at Higher TF is just going to stop you out.

they are stressful/psych. demanding -higher chart watch time, there are 288 5min candles in one day’s price action. even if you trade 1 main session, its information overload.

they often don’t give major market moves-the big moves are better able to be captured with higher TF support/resistance points.

PROS-

despite being choppy, they can be used in conjunction with higher TF, S&R levels, for better results.

re stressful – don’t need to trade a whole session, once you get a good entry, you can walk away and hopefully see profit target met and then you can manage your stress as you don’t need to look anymore, you can simply trade the main euro session and be done.

smaller stop loss sizes – greater leverage possibility

more trends, more scalping opportunity- there are more 5min trends in 1 day than 15min or 30min trends in 1 day.

Good points Andy. One thing I think a number of traders here are missing is that its not all about the number of pips….its how much you have riding on a pip. Sure, a longer term trade may run 1000 pips over the course of days. But if your position size is large enough you can make the same $ amount with 10 pips in less than 5 mins. I do agree with Nick that longer term trading is better to start out on. My initial post was really a response to the remark that longer term trading was more profitable per se. For noobs, almost certainly. For more experienced traders….

Also, longer term time frames are more forgiving. A noob will likely lose more slowly giving him/her more time to develop the skills necessary to survive. Once acquired though, time frames may be dropped.

Good post Nick, wow, you stirred up the wasp nest with this one! With you 100 % of course we are muc more likely to find success in higher TF’s, and only after these have been operated on profitably one should ever consider anything lower than H1, then agin if you are able to make pips consistently only checking in 2-3 times a day, why change?
 

Honestly I am surprised it has not stirred up more controversy. I was expecting a bunch of negative comments.

I agree, once people are successful on higher time frames they can consider dropping down. I think until a trader becomes profitable the easiest path to success is larger time frames.

To add to my reply below. The three other sites which participated in the random distribution of this survey differ from forex4noobs in their approach to trading. However, the survey results from the individual sites fell in to a very slim margin of error. This showed me that the survey results are in fact valid.

In the video I did not go in to detail about how the information was collected because I felt it would bore people.

I always suspected that small time frames were too choppy for some traders. I have been trading daily charts for a year with good returns. When I first began trading I was using a 15M system. I think the system was called The Quick Margin Call System!

 I used that system for all of 2010!

I am not sure if this could ever be over-emphasized!! What is trading in spending quality time and mental energy anlayzing the markets only to jump in for 10 pips and out in the next second? I am not sure how anything lower than H1 cand make one good profits in the long run.
Go quality time frames!!

Just started trading H8 time frames. I am taking better trades and stressing much less. My only issue is that on the H8 TF one one the 3 periods ends at 23:00. I may switch to a H6 just to conform to my personal schedule. I don’t think it would make that much difference.

Thanks Nick from a “noob”.

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